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The direst projected effects of the climate crisis for the UK have been mapped by researchers, including a blistering 4C jump in mean temperatures to a 6.5-foot rise in sea levels. An alternative projection foresees a decline of 6C in temperature following the shutdown of key Atlantic Ocean currents, which would profoundly upset food production and energy needs.

Possible Events, Not Guarantees

These impacts, certain ones are linked to climate tipping points, are seen as improbable but credible. The scientists explained that these scenarios addressed a shortfall in planning that had left the UK not ready for extreme outcomes.

"The severe weather events we have outlined aren’t predictions, but they are possible," stated Nigel Arnell who led the research. "Britain has been making preparations in the absence of the tools to assess worst-case scenarios. We've now provided policymakers what they need to plan for future conditions they pray never occur, but dare not dismiss."

A Range of Harsh Climate Scenarios

A second set of worst-case scenarios maps the possible scale of severe conditions between now and the end of the century. These indicate that temperatures could rocket in certain periods by up to 6C higher than average, while precipitation could be 300% of normal levels.

The likelihood of the extreme scenarios occurring cannot be precisely determined due to unknown factors about what measures will be taken to combat global heating and how the Earth's systems will react. This approach was likened to defence planning or stress tests for financial systems.

Critical Outcome Highlights

• 4C Temperature Rise: Planetary heating exceeding 4C by 2100 could transpire if climate action breaks down or if vicious cycles like the Amazon basin dying unleash its huge repository of carbon. This would cause severe and lengthy heatwaves and dry spells affecting the UK in summer.
• Ocean Circulation Failure: A key circulation system, the AMOC, is losing strength and losing stability due to climate change. A full shutdown starting around 2030 would lead to a six-degree temperature drop in the UK. "Agriculture would face immense difficulties and freshwater availability would be drastically changed," noted the professor.
• Accelerated Coastal Flooding: A rise of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could take place if polar ice in Greenland and Antarctica collapse rapidly, flooding low-lying areas. In contrast to the other scenarios, this threat is already understood by infrastructure experts.
• Pollution Paradox: Global averages could also be increased by about 0.75C if airborne particulates is sharply cut. This unexpected result occurs because aerosol particles from burning coal scatter sunlight from reaching the ground.

Planning for the Extreme

The severe models could be utilized in planning the development of long-term infrastructure, such as expanded cities, nuclear power stations and water management networks. Knowledge about these environmental threats could also speed the drive to reduce carbon pollution.

The study created the extreme models using a blend of real-world events, digital projections and established principles. These outcomes exclude potential global problems including the agricultural collapse and resource wars.

The project was commissioned as part of a official risk assessment framework. Earlier reports have warned that too little consideration was being allocated to low‐likelihood but high‐impact risks.

The government's climate advisors has recommended that the UK must "adapt to 2C" and assess the risks for four degrees. Earlier government strategies have been described as being "inadequate" by environmental groups.

A government spokesperson noted: "The climate emergency is at the heart of this government’s agenda, both building resilience and becoming a low-carbon economy. It is essential that the UK is prepared for the impacts."