Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Serious Obstacles in the Selection Process

Several members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to head off any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.