The Way Trump Secured a Gaza Breakthrough That Escaped Biden
Initially, Israel's aerial attack on the Hamas delegation in Doha appeared like yet another escalation that pushed the hope of a ceasefire out of reach.
The attack on 9 September violated the territorial integrity of an American ally and risked expanding the hostilities into a region-wide war.
Negotiations seemed to be in ruins.
Instead, it proved to be a pivotal event that has led in a agreement, announced by President Donald Trump, to release all captives still held.
This is a objective that Trump, and President Joe Biden previously, had sought for nearly two years.
This marks just the first step towards a lasting resolution, and the specifics of Hamas disarmament, Gaza governance and complete Israeli pullout are still to be worked out.
Yet if this deal holds, it could be Trump's signature achievement of his second term - one that escaped Joe Biden and his diplomatic team.
The president's unique style and key alliances with the Israeli government and the Arab world appear to have contributed in this breakthrough.
However, as with many diplomatic achievements, there were also elements at play beyond the control of either man.
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Publicly, Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are all smiles.
Trump likes to say that the nation has no better friend, and the Israeli leader has described him as the country's "greatest ever ally in the US presidency". And these positive statements have been matched by actions.
During his first presidential term, Trump moved the US embassy in Israel from its former location to Jerusalem and discarded a traditional American stance that Israeli settlements in the Palestinian West Bank are against international law, the view under international law.
After the Israeli military began its bombing campaign against the Islamic Republic in the summer, the US leader directed US bombers to strike the nation's atomic sites with its most powerful conventional bombs.
These visible shows of support may have allowed Trump the leeway to exert more influence on Israel behind the scenes. According to reports, the president's envoy, Steve Witkoff, browbeat Netanyahu in the latter part of the year into accepting a temporary ceasefire in return for the freeing of a number of captives.
After Israel launched strikes against Syria's military in July, even bombing a place of worship, the US president pressured Netanyahu to alter tactics.
Trump displayed a degree of determination and pressure on an Israel's leader that is rarely seen, says an analyst of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "There is no example of an American president literally telling an Israeli prime minister that they must agree or else."
Biden's relationship with the Israeli administration was always more strained.
The Biden team's "bear hug strategy" held that the United States had to support Israel openly in order to allow it to influence the nation's war conduct behind closed doors.
Beneath this was Biden's nearly half-century of backing for the state, as well as deep disagreements within his Democratic coalition over the conflict in Gaza. Every step the leader took risked fracturing his own political backing, whereas Trump's loyal conservative voters gave him more flexibility to act.
In the end, internal considerations or personal relationships may have had little impact than the reality that, throughout his term, the Israeli government was not ready to make peace.
Several months into his new administration, with the Islamic Republic weakened, the militant group to its northern border greatly diminished and Gaza in ruins, every one of its key military goals had been accomplished.
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The Israeli missile attack in the Qatari capital, which killed a Qatari citizen but no Hamas officials, led the president to deliver an final demand to the prime minister. Hostilities had to stop.
Trump had given the Israeli military a significant latitude in the territory. The president lent US armed support to Israel's campaign in the neighboring country. However an attack on Qatari territory was a separate issue completely, pushing him towards the Arab position on how best to end the war.
Several administration figures have informed the press that this was a turning point which galvanised the leader to exert full force to get a peace deal done.
The leader's close ties with the Arab monarchies are well documented. Trump has commercial interests with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. He began both his presidential terms with state visits to Saudi Arabia. Recently, he also stopped in Qatar and Abu Dhabi.
The president's normalization agreements, which normalised relations between Israel and several Muslim states, including the UAE, was the most significant foreign policy success of his initial presidency.
The time he spent in the capitals of the Arabian Peninsula earlier this year helped shift his perspective, says Ed Husain of the a policy institute. The US president did not visit the country on this regional tour but went to the United Arab Emirates, the kingdom and Qatar where he heard consistent appeals to put a stop to the conflict.
Within weeks after that Israeli strike on Doha, the president was present close as the prime minister personally called Qatar to express regret. Subsequently, the Israeli leader signed off on Trump's 20-point peace plan for Gaza - one that also had the support of influential Arab states in the region.
If Trump's relationship with his counterpart gave him the room to influence the government to reach an agreement, his history with Muslim leaders may have ensured their support, and helped them convince Hamas to commit to the deal.
"One of the things that clearly happened was that President Trump developed leverage with the Israelis, and indirectly with Hamas," notes Jon Alterman of the a research center.
"That made a difference. His ability to achieve this on his own schedule, and not succumb to the demands of the combatants has been a challenge that many earlier administrations have faced, and Trump seems to do with some success."
The reality that the president is far better liked in the nation than Netanyahu himself was leverage that Trump employed to his advantage, the expert continues.
Currently the Israeli government has committed to freeing over a thousand detainees held in its jails and has agreed to a limited pullback from the strip.
Hamas will release all the remaining hostages, both alive and deceased, taken during the initial October 7 assault, which caused the death of over 1,200 Israelis.
An end to the war, which has resulted in the devastation of Gaza and the deaths of over 67,000 {Palestinians|Pal