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Against the backdrop of the immense confusion surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but the recent overnight operation saw its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and abduct its leader – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the leadership-stricken government are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a rogue state.

He believes that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He promises that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. The international community may live to repent if they fail to speak up today, with the question of which nation is next looming.